A special election is set for December 2 in Tennessee's 7th District, where Republican candidate Matt Van Epps currently leads Democrat Aftyn Behn by 48% to 46% among likely voters, according to a recent Emerson College poll. The poll, released on the final day of in-person early voting, has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points, with 5% of voters undecided and 2% supporting third-party candidates. When leaning voters are included, the gap narrows to 49% for Van Epps and 47% for Behn, indicating a competitive race in a district that President Donald Trump won by 22 points in the 2024 election.

Voter turnout is expected to play a crucial role in the election outcome, particularly among various demographic groups. Early voting trends show Behn leading with 56% compared to Van Epps at 42%, while Election Day voters favor Van Epps at 51% against Behn's 39%. Notably, younger voters under 40 are showing strong support for Behn at 64%, while Van Epps' base is predominantly older, with 61% of his supporters being under 70. Additionally, women support Behn by 6 points, while men back Van Epps by 9 points.

The election has garnered national attention, particularly focused on Behn, a former social worker and current member of the Tennessee General Assembly, and Van Epps, a retired U.S. Army officer and former Commissioner of Tennessee’s Department of General Services. Behn's campaign emphasizes addressing economic issues such as healthcare affordability and corporate accountability, resonating with voters frustrated by the current economic climate and the perceived dysfunction in Washington, D.C.

Political analysts note that the Cook Political Report has shifted its classification of the race from "Solid Republican" to "Lean Republican," reflecting a growing enthusiasm among Democratic voters. Behn's outreach efforts aim to connect with both urban and rural constituents, particularly those concerned about potential Medicaid cuts and rising healthcare costs. Her campaign has received support from labor unions and progressive organizations, which have amplified her message through advertising that critiques corporate influence in politics.

The Tennessee Republican Party Chair, Scott Golden, has acknowledged the significance of this election, highlighting the heavy investment of Democratic resources in the race. Despite the district's conservative leanings, there are indications of discontent among Republican voters regarding economic management, with many expressing dissatisfaction with the rising cost of living.

As the election approaches, both parties recognize the potential implications of the outcome. A Democratic victory could signal a shift in voter sentiment and prompt a reevaluation of Republican strategies in a post-Trump era, particularly concerning economic and social issues affecting everyday Americans. The election serves as a potential indicator of changing political dynamics in a region that has traditionally supported Republican candidates.