As the 2026 midterm elections approach, a PBS News/NPR/Marist poll conducted from November 10 to 13, 2025, reveals that 55% of registered voters would choose a Democratic candidate for Congress, compared to 41% for Republicans. This 14-point lead is the largest margin for Democrats since November 2017, a period that preceded substantial Democratic gains in the House of Representatives during President Donald Trump's first term.

The poll highlights a notable shift in voter preferences, particularly among independent voters, who favor Democrats by a 33-point margin. Analysts suggest that the Democrats' status as the opposition party may enhance their appeal as voters consider governance options for the upcoming elections. Recent electoral successes for Democrats in states like New York, New Jersey, and Virginia have energized the party, potentially dampening Republican enthusiasm.

Economic concerns dominate voter priorities, with 57% of Americans indicating that lowering prices should be the top focus for the White House. This sentiment is echoed across party lines, with majorities of Democrats and independents, as well as a plurality of Republicans, supporting this priority. In contrast, issues like immigration, which were central to Trump's administration, rank lower in public concern.

Trump's approval rating has declined to 39%, with 56% disapproving of his performance. This decline is attributed to a perceived disconnect between the administration's focus on crime and foreign conflicts and the public's pressing economic concerns. Additionally, a significant portion of the public attributes the recent government shutdown to Trump and congressional Republicans, further contributing to dissatisfaction with political institutions.

Public confidence in Congress remains low, with only 20% of Americans expressing trust in the institution. This distrust extends to the presidency, the Supreme Court, and the media, indicating a broader concern about the disconnect between elected officials and the experiences of everyday citizens. Despite the Democratic advantage in polling, the prevailing sentiment reflects a broader anti-incumbent attitude, suggesting that dissatisfaction with the current political landscape may significantly influence voter behavior in the upcoming midterm elections.

In a related context, political violence remains a pressing concern, as evidenced by the sentencing of James Donald Vance Jr. for threatening U.S. Vice President JD Vance and others. This case underscores the troubling trend of violent rhetoric in political discourse, raising questions about its implications for public safety and democratic processes.

As the political landscape evolves, the Democratic Party's current advantage may be tempered by the underlying issues of public discontent and institutional distrust, which could shape the dynamics leading up to the midterms.