A substantial oil deposit, estimated to contain 511 billion barrels, has been identified by Russian research missions in the Weddell Sea, an area claimed by the United Kingdom in Antarctica. If verified, this find would represent one of the largest untapped oil reserves globally, surpassing even those in Saudi Arabia and significantly exceeding the production levels of the North Sea.

This discovery was presented to the UK Parliament’s Environment Audit Committee (EAC) in May 2024, prompting immediate concern from both diplomatic and scientific communities regarding the implications for the 1959 Antarctic Treaty. This treaty prohibits resource extraction and military activities on the continent, aiming to preserve it for peaceful and scientific purposes.

Russia asserts that its research activities comply with the treaty. However, as geopolitical tensions escalate and competition in the Arctic intensifies, experts caution that this new oil frontier could become a focal point for strategic conflict and legal uncertainties.

The estimate of 511 billion barrels, derived from seismic studies conducted by Russian vessels, has not yet been independently verified in scientific literature, leading to skepticism about whether Russia's activities are genuinely scientific or a cover for resource prospecting.

The contested area falls under the UK’s territorial claim in Antarctica, which overlaps with claims from Chile and Argentina. Despite these disputes, the Antarctic Treaty suspends all territorial claims and designates the continent for non-military and scientific use.

During the EAC hearing, Professor Klaus Dodds, a geopolitics expert at Royal Holloway, University of London, expressed concerns that Russia’s actions could threaten the existing ban on mining. He indicated that there is apprehension that Russia is gathering seismic data that may be interpreted as resource prospecting rather than purely scientific research.

The Antarctic Treaty, signed in 1959 by 12 countries and now with 58 signatories, established Antarctica as a demilitarized zone dedicated to scientific cooperation. Key provisions include prohibiting military and economic exploitation, freezing sovereignty claims, and mandating open inspections of all activities.

Despite the treaty's longevity, its enforcement mechanisms are limited, relying on self-policing among signatories. This lack of robust enforcement leaves Antarctica susceptible to potential violations by states seeking to exploit legal ambiguities.

Russia, a founding signatory of the treaty, does not recognize the UK’s territorial claims in the region, a stance shared by the United States and China. Both Russia and the US maintain a basis of claim, which provides political leverage without formal sovereignty declarations.

Since 1957, Russia has established five research stations in Antarctica and has increased its seismic surveying activities in recent years. While these activities are officially presented as scientific, experts suggest they may also serve dual purposes, such as identifying areas rich in resources for future exploitation.

David Rutley, a junior minister at the UK Foreign Office, emphasized during the May 2024 hearing that Russia must be held accountable for its assurances regarding the scientific nature of its activities.

The implications of this discovery extend beyond Antarctic governance. With global energy markets under strain and the geopolitical landscape shifting post-Ukraine, untapped oil and gas reserves in protected areas are increasingly viewed as strategic assets.

In light of heavy sanctions from the West and disruptions in fossil fuel markets, Russia may perceive Antarctica as a strategic opportunity. Its growing collaboration with China in polar matters further complicates the situation.

In 2022, both Russia and China opposed efforts by other treaty parties to expand marine protected areas in Antarctica, a move interpreted as resistance to Western environmental initiatives and indicative of their long-term interests in the region.

While the Antarctic Treaty prohibits drilling, it does not explicitly ban geological surveys or seismic mapping, creating a legal gray area that resource-seeking states may exploit without directly violating the treaty.

As Professor Dodds noted, Russia’s actions should be viewed within the context of increasing strategic competition in Antarctica.