Israeli and Arab officials have informed the Trump administration that the Iranian regime may not be sufficiently vulnerable for U.S. military strikes to effectively lead to its downfall. This assessment arises as President Donald Trump contemplates military action in response to the regime's violent crackdown on ongoing protests, which began on December 28, 2025, initially driven by economic grievances such as a collapsing currency and rising inflation.

As the protests have evolved into broader demands for the end of clerical rule, the Iranian government has responded with lethal force against demonstrators, resulting in significant casualties. The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency reports approximately 2,000 deaths and over 16,000 detentions since the protests commenced. The Iranian government has also restricted internet access, complicating communication among protesters and limiting external visibility into the situation.

In light of these developments, discussions among U.S. political and military leaders highlight the complexities faced by the Trump administration. While Trump has threatened military intervention if the Iranian government continues its violent actions against protesters, some officials recommend delaying large-scale strikes until the regime is under greater strain. They suggest that immediate military action could unify Iranians against external threats, as seen in past reactions to U.S. and Israeli attacks.

The administration is also considering various non-military options, such as enhancing communication capabilities for protesters, increasing economic sanctions, and conducting targeted military actions against specific Iranian leaders. These measures aim to destabilize the regime and support the ongoing protests without resorting to large-scale military intervention.

While Iranian officials have expressed a willingness to negotiate to prevent military strikes, Trump has canceled meetings with them until the violence against protesters ceases. A White House spokesperson stated that all options remain available to the president, who is weighing multiple perspectives before making decisions. The outcome of these considerations remains uncertain, as the situation in Iran continues to evolve.