Nine seismic stations in Alaska are scheduled to cease operations this month, which will hinder tsunami forecasters' ability to assess whether an earthquake could generate a destructive wave impacting the West Coast. These stations were supported by a federal grant that expired last year, and the Trump administration opted not to renew it. The data collected from these stations is crucial for understanding the magnitude and characteristics of earthquakes along the Alaskan Subduction Zone, a fault known for producing some of the world's most powerful earthquakes, posing risks to California, Oregon, Washington, and Hawaii. Michael West, director of the Alaska Earthquake Center, indicated that the closure of these stations could result in delayed tsunami warnings for Alaska's coastal communities and less accurate forecasts for areas further away, such as Washington state.

The U.S. operates two tsunami warning centers, located in Palmer, Alaska, and Honolulu, which function continuously to provide predictions that assist emergency managers in determining the necessity of coastal evacuations following earthquakes. Historically, data from Alaska's seismic stations has been integral to these centers. However, both centers are currently understaffed, with only 11 of 20 full-time positions filled in Alaska and four of 16 roles open in Hawaii, as reported by Tom Fahy, union legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization.

Additionally, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has reduced funding for the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, which is essential for state-level tsunami risk reduction efforts. In 2025, NOAA allocated $4 million to this program, significantly less than the $6 million typically provided. West described the program as being "on life support."

The recent cuts coincide with broader reductions in federal spending on science and climate research during the Trump administration, which included the dismissal of hundreds of NOAA employees and the cessation of various research initiatives. The seismic stations being decommissioned are primarily located in remote areas of the Aleutian Islands, which extend west from the Alaskan Peninsula toward Russia, following an underwater subduction zone. The Alaska Earthquake Center had sought new grant funding through 2028 but was denied, as indicated in correspondence between West and NOAA staff.

NOAA spokesperson Kim Doster stated that the agency ceased funding in 2024 under the Biden administration. Despite efforts by the University of Alaska Fairbanks to secure funding for an additional year, the anticipated federal support did not materialize. Doster asserted that the loss of these stations would not impede the Tsunami Warning Center's mission, claiming that the Alaska Earthquake Center is one of many partners contributing to the National Weather Service's tsunami operations.

West emphasized that the Alaska Earthquake Center provides the majority of data utilized for tsunami warnings in the state, and the grant that supported the seismic stations also funded a data feed from the center's other sensors. The closure of the stations will limit the national tsunami warning centers' access to this critical data. West noted that the stations cover a vast geographic area, with no alternative monitoring instruments nearby. The plan is to abandon the stations later this month, leaving their equipment in place.

Concerns have been raised regarding the potential for delayed or degraded tsunami warnings due to these closures, particularly in a region that is already sparsely monitored. The Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone is one of the most active fault lines globally, having previously generated significant tsunamis, including a 1964 event that resulted in 124 fatalities across several states. Experts assert that the Aleutian Islands stations are vital for quickly assessing nearby earthquakes, as proximity to a sensor reduces uncertainty about potential tsunamis.

NOAA's tsunami warning centers aim to issue initial forecasts within five minutes, which is crucial for local communities, especially since a strong earthquake in the Aleutian Islands could send an initial wave to nearby Alaskan communities within minutes. The only data available quickly enough for these initial forecasts comes from seismic signals. After approximately 40 minutes, the centers provide more detailed forecasts regarding wave heights. The absence of the Alaska sensors is expected to increase uncertainty about wave heights, complicating evacuation decisions along the Washington coastline.

In the past year, the national tsunami warning centers have faced significant challenges, including responding to a magnitude-7.0 earthquake near Cape Mendocino, California, and a magnitude-8.8 quake off Russia's Kamchatka peninsula, which prompted widespread alerts along the U.S. West Coast. While NOAA has historically supported the seismic stations that are part of the Alaska Earthquake Center's network, West noted a decline in this support over the past two decades, with nine NOAA-built stations decommissioned in 2013. He expressed a desire to initiate a discussion about tsunami preparedness in the U.S. before a catastrophic event necessitates urgent action.